Dynamics of urbanization, industry, energy, and emissions on economic growth in middle-income ASEAN countries

Dynamics of urbanization, industry, energy, and emissions on economic growth in middle-income ASEAN countries

Authors

  • Muhamad Toriq University Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
  • Cut Risya Varlitya University Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Keywords:

Urbanization, Industrial value added, Energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, Economic growth

Abstract

This study analyzes the asymmetric influence of urbanization, industrial value added, electricity consumption, renewable energy use, and CO₂ emissions on economic growth in middle-income ASEAN countries over the period 1990–2023. Using a fixed-effects panel quantile regression approach, the results indicate that urbanization, electricity consumption, renewable energy utilization, and CO₂ emissions exhibit positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth, whereas industrial value added shows no meaningful contribution across quantiles. The effect of urbanization is more pronounced at lower quantiles, underscoring its strategic importance during earlier stages of economic development. These findings provide empirical insights for policymakers in formulating strategies related to urban management, energy diversification, and emissions mitigation to support sustainable economic performance.

References

1. Abbasi, K. R., Shahbaz, M., Jiao, Z., & Tufail, M. (2021). How energy consumption, industrial growth, urbanization, and CO2 emissions affect economic growth in Pakistan? A novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach. Energy, 221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.119793

2. Afriyanti, Y., Sasana, H., & Jalunggono, G. (2020). Analisis Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Konsumsi Energi Terbarukan Di Indonesia. Journal of Economic, 2(3). https://doi.org/https://dx.doi.org/10.31002/dinamic.v2i3.1428

3. Ahmed, T., Rahman, M. M., Aktar, M., Das Gupta, A., & Abedin, M. Z. (2023). The impact of economic development on environmental sustainability: evidence from the Asian region. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25(4), 3523–3553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02178-w

4. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). (2020). ASEAN Centre for Energy One Community for Sustainable Energy.

5. Birol, F. (2022). Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022. www.iea.org/t&c/

6. ESCAP. (2024). Eighth High-Level Brainstorming Dialogue on Enhancing Complementarities between the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. UNESCAP

7. Das, T., & Chakraborty, D. (2024). Re-assessing the Environmental Kuznets Curve for the [8] Human Development Index: Evidence from Emerging Asian Economies. Southeast Asian Journal of Economics, 12(3), 207–264.

8. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (A. E. Hilbert, Ed.; 5th ed.). McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

9. Harahap, F. R. (2013). Dampak Urbanisasi Bagi Perkembangan Kota Di Indonesia. Jurnal Society, 1(1).

10. Ingot, S. R. (2021). Global Value Chains (GVC) Pada Komoditi Primer dan Manufaktur: Studi ASEAN 6. Cendekia Niaga, 5(1), 44–59. https://doi.org/10.52391/jcn.v5i1.577

11. Kabeyi, M. J. B., & Olanrewaju, O. A. (2021). Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Economic Development. International Conference on Electrical, Computer, and Energy Technologies, ICECET 2021. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICECET52533.2021.9698413

12. Kniivilä, M. (2007). Industrial development and economic growth: Implications for poverty reduction and income inequality.

13. Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile regression. Cambridge University Press.

14. Li, B., & Haneklaus, N. (2021). The role of renewable energy, fossil fuel consumption, urbanization and economic growth on CO2 emissions in China. Energy Reports, 7, 783–791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.09.194

15. Metreau, E., Young, K. E., & Eapen, S. G. (2024). World Bank country classifications by income level for 2024–2025. World Bank.

16. Nadya, I., & Aimon, H. (2020). Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara ASEAN: Peran Teknologi Informasi, Pendidikan dan Investasi Asing. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 9(2), 103–113. http://ejournal.unp.ac.id/index.php/ekosains

17. Nathaniel, S., & Khan, S. A. R. (2020). The nexus between urbanization, renewable energy, trade, and ecological footprint in ASEAN countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122709

18. Nugraha, A. T., Prayitno, G., Situmorang, M. E., & Nasution, A. (2020). The role of infrastructure in economic growth and income inequality in Indonesia. Economics & Sociology, 13(1), 102–115. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2020/13-1/7

19. Otim, J., Watundu, S., Mutenyo, J., & Bagire, V. (2023). Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Kenya. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(3), 457–468. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.14292

20. Prastowo, P., & Putri Damayanti, L. (2022). The Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Oil Prices, and Economic Growth in Indonesia. JAMPE, 1(1), 28–39. https://doi.org/10.12928/jampe.v1i1.4949

21. Premashthira, A. (2024). Renewable energy use, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in Thailand. Southeast Asian Journal of Economics, 12(2), 219–249.

22. Samiaji, T. (2011). Gas CO2 Di Wilayah Indonesia. Dirgantara, 12(2), 68–75.

23. Rustiadi, E., Saefulhakim, S., & Panuju, D. R. (2009). Perencanaan Dan Pengembangan Wilayah. Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia.

24. Rahman, M. M. (2020). Environmental degradation: The role of electricity consumption, economic growth and globalisation. Journal of Environmental Management, 253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109742

25. REI. (2024). Dasar-Dasar Energi Terbarukan. Renewable Energy Indonesia.

26. Sahoo, K., & Sethi, N. (2020). Investigating the Impact of Agriculture and Industrial Sector on Economic Growth of India. OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 5(5).

27. Sihabudin, Wibowo, D., Mulyono, S., Wijaya Kusuma, J., Arofah, I., Arnawisuda Ningsi, B., Saputra, E., & Purwasih, R. (2021). Ekonometrika Dasar Teori dan Praktik Berbasis SPSS. CV. Pena Persada.

28. Sihombing, P. R., Suryadiningrat, S., Sunarjo, D. A., & Yuda, Y. P. A. C. (2023). Identifikasi Data Outlier dan Kenormalan Data. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia, 2(3), 307–316.

29. Szirmai, A., & Verspagen, B. (2015). Manufacturing and economic growth in developing countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 34, 46–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2015.06.002

30. Su, D., & Yao, Y. (2017). Manufacturing as the key engine of economic growth for middle-income economies. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 22(1), 47–70.

31. Su, M., Wang, Q., Li, R., & Wang, L. (2022). Per capita renewable energy consumption in 116 countries. Energy, 254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124289

32. Ula, T., & Affandi. (2019). Dampak Konsumsi Energi Terbarukan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Asia Tenggara. Journal of Economics Science, 5(2), 64–72.

33. Wang, J. C., Qu, M., Xu, T. P., & Choi, S. (2024). The dynamic nexus between economic growth, renewable energy use, urbanization, industrialization, tourism, green supply chain management, and CO2. Heliyon, 10(19), e38061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38061

34. Wang, J., & Azam, W. (2024). Natural resource scarcity, fossil fuel energy consumption, and total greenhouse gas emissions. Geoscience Frontiers, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101757

35. Zhang, Y., Cheng, B., Shen, J., & Mo, Y. (2024). Spatial structure of central cities and economic performance of metropolitan areas. Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-260-6_8

Downloads

Published

2026-05-04

Conference Proceedings Volume

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Dynamics of urbanization, industry, energy, and emissions on economic growth in middle-income ASEAN countries . (2026). BIS Economics and Business, 3, V326013. https://doi.org/10.31603/biseb.555

Similar Articles

1-10 of 21

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.