Multi-method accident blackspot analysis using ean, ucl and chain of event: Evidence from Indonesian urban roads
Keywords:
Blackspot, Accident, EAN-UCL, Chain of event, iRAP, Star ratingAbstract
Traffic accidents cause 1.19 million deaths annually globally, with 90% occurring in middle-income countries. Indonesia faces a critical challenge with motorcycles accounting for 84-85% of vehicles and contributing to 73% of traffic accidents. This study proposes an integrated analytical framework combining the Equivalent Accident Number (EAN)-Upper Control Limit (UCL) method for statistical blackspot identification, Chain of Event analysis for causality mechanism investigation, and iRAP Star Rating assessment for infrastructure risk evaluation. The framework is demonstrated on Jalan Slamet Riyadi, Surakarta—a 5.7 km urban arterial road with 414 accidents (2020-2024), the highest frequency in the city. The EAN-UCL analysis identifies two critical blackspot segments (STA 0+000-0+500 and STA 4+000-4+500). Chain of Event analysis revealed that accidents occurred in the form of out-of-control collisions, front-to-rear collisions and collisions at intersections with a causal path from hazard existence (uncontrolled intersections, high side obstacles) through precipitating events (loss of control) to crash events. The initial iRAP assessment showed that segments had an average rating of 2 and 3 stars, with the lowest score for pedestrians (<2). Based on the integration of the three methods, specific recommendations included: speed limit signs, physical road medians, zebra crossing improvements and reflective edge markings. Post-intervention evaluation showed significant improvements: both segments' ratings increased to 4 stars with the lowest score for pedestrians (>2), and improved scores for all road user categories. This multi-method framework proved its effectiveness in identifying blackspots, understanding causal mechanisms and predicting the effectiveness of interventions for motorcycle-dominated urban roads in Indonesian.
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